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Spawn Patterns in Latest Pokemon GO Worldwide Bloom Event

Let's see what the spawning patterns are like during the current worldwide bloom event.

Location details

The important things are; this analysis was done on a triple lure over the course of six hours, the surrounding area is tagged as a naval base on OpenStreetMap (something I was previously unaware of), hence all normal spawns are suppressed in a ~200 m radius with few exceptions, and when lured previously, there has been a tendency for the lures to sometimes spawn large amounts of Voltorbs and Magnemites.

Suspected biome for the area is primarily water with a hint of Forest, but with a very rich and diverse mix of non-water spawns, and a possible, unidentified electric biome somewhere nearby, though I'm not quite sure where.

Pokéstops

These are the Pokéstops I lured (this is an old picture from February, there is no snow there at this point). I will refer to the Pokéstops by name from here on:


  • The Pokéstop on the left side of the canal is North
  • The Pokéstop right next to the lamp post on the right is Middle
  • The Pokéstop in the background, in front of the yellow building is South
Methodology

Equipped with my phone, a solar panel, and some food, I went down to the area and placed three lures at 11:09 AM local time (CEST timezone; 9:09 AM UTC). I claimed my 7-day Pokéstop streak on the North Pokéstop (got a Dragon Scale, yay!) and sat down on a bench on the right side of the canal to start catching things that spawned.

Every spawn was scanned and logged by Calcy IV upon catching the Pokémon. (In my last analysis I kept a tally by hand, but I figured I would save a lot of time using an app. Plus it would also save the timestamp of the catch, as well as CP, HP and other parameters in case those could be useful.) The Pokémon were always caught in the order North-South-Middle, so that I could easily assign each Pokémon to which Pokéstop it spawned on when I analyzed the data. 

For Pokémon that ran away, I logged the CP and spawning time manually in a notepad app. I also logged critical catches in the notepad.

When the lures expired at 5:09 PM CEST, I exported my Calcy history to CSV, went home, and transferred my notes and history to my computer. I filtered out all catches prior to the lure placement, added fleeing Pokémon, added critical catch data, and assigned every spawn to the correct Pokéstop. I found that there were actually several spawns that Calcy had not logged data for, and after recovering what I could from my journal, I ended up with data for 357 out of 360 Pokémon, or 99.2% of all spawns. I then created a frequency table of Pokémon types, and added together the number of spawns for each type of Pokémon. (This was >357 because several Pokémon have dual typing.) I then charted the results.

Spawn results

A total of 357 spawns were logged, covering 68 unique species of Pokémon. (Pokémon of the same family, such as Victreebel and Weepinbell, are considered unique species in this count.)

The South Pokéstop unfortunately managed to get afflicted by Voltorb-Magnemitis, and spawned almost exclusively Voltorbs and Magnemites for the entirety of the six hours of lures. This messed up my data a bit, so I've chosen to declare all spawns on that Pokéstop as anomalies, and will ignore it for the rest of my analysis.

Charts

Total spawns for all three Pokéstops, including the South Pokéstop.

Spawns for the North and Middle Pokéstops only.


The North Pokéstop only.


The Middle Pokéstop only.


The South Pokéstop only.


You can really see how the South Pokéstop would cause an issue.

Discussion

Looking at the numbers, it's clear that Grass Pokémon made up the majority of spawns. When I was sitting there, it certainly did not seem that way. It turns out that more Pokémon are grass types than I expected. Grass was followed by Poison, which was almost tied with Water. Keep in mind that normally, grass types are not usually as common as water here. The grass types most common outside of events here are Bellsprout, Paras and Hoppip. Sunkern, Exeggcute and Oddish also spawn, although rarer than the aforementioned ones, and Chikorita, Bulbasaur and Skiploom are rare. The remaining grass types are very rare, with Tangela taking the prize as the rarest grass spawn in the area, spawning less frequently than even Chansey does.

It might also be interesting to see the distribution of grass type Pokémon for each Pokéstop:

Both North and Middle Pokéstop


The North Pokéstop only


The Middle Pokéstop only


Paras (11), Bellsprout (9), Exeggcute (9) and Oddish (9) make up the majority of the grass spawns, followed by Chikorita (8), Hoppip (7) and Sunkern (6). Skiploom (2) and Weepinbell (2) were the only evolved Grass forms and make up for the bottom two species on the spawn rate chart. No other grass types spawned during the six hours, and no grass types spawned whatsoever on the South Pokéstop.

Other data
  • Out of 357 logged spawns, 348 Pokémon were caught and 9 ran away.
  • Out of 348 caught Pokémon, 5 were caught with a critical catch.
Error sources
  • The Voltorb-Magnemitis infection meant that I could only use data from two Pokéstops, hence 33% of potential data was lost. This should not affect the accuracy of the valid data, but the values would have been more refined if this Pokéstop could also have been used.
  • Three spawns were lost. Apparently Calcy didn't log them. Those three spawns made up for less than 1% of the spawns, though, so there shouldn't have been much effect from this in the data.
  • Calcy misinterpreted some CP values (e.g. it read CP 602 when the Pokémon in reality was CP 607). This has not been corrected, but it shouldn't affect the above analysis either way because CP values were not taken into consideration in the analysis.
Raw data

Download here (OpenDocument format)

I am level 34, so the wild Pokémon spawns ranged from level 1 to level 30.

Conclusions
  • The event makes grass types spawn much more frequently
  • No noteworthy rares spawned this time, the rarest spawn being a Sandslash
Also:
  • I really hate Magnemite's movement patterns
  • Voltorbs are extremely aggressive
  • Nanab berries are useful for catching Voltorbs
  • I almost ran out of balls despite starting with over 100 of each and sitting on three Pokéstops
I also gathered data on item drop rates during this experiment. An analysis will be posted later with drop rates for each item, as well as an investigation of whether drop rates change throughout the day.

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