Recently there has been a lot of speculation in the Pokémon GO research community on the mechanics behind evolution item drops. Previous research showed that evolution items drop rates are around 0.15% (roughly 0.03% per item), however, due to lack of data we had no breakthroughs on drop mechanics.
This seems to be changing now, as the research community proposed a number of competing theories and a number of trainers reported seeing the same phenomena: PokéStops dropping one evolution item every day at the same time.
This theory is yet to be validated and thoroughly researched, but we decided to write about it in order to speed up the research and data collection. Recently, a Google Form was published, asking fellow trainers to record the time of their Evolution item drops.
We urge all readers to submit their drops here in order to help researches validate this theory.
Theory origins and speculation
The theory originated on reddit, with a number of trainers reporting that a majority of their drops occurred at the same time of day. Refer to the following screenshot of a Trainer showing that 2 out of 3 drops he got happened at almost the same time (11:01 PM)!
In another discussion, titled “More Evolution item time stamp evidence”, a redditor shared the following experience:
Been following this since last week. 10:23 everyday in front of Peck hall I get 1 item…
To push things even further, another Trainer reported getting Evolution items at exactly the same time:
To keep things short, I want to report the following:
I have only received four evolutionary items: a metal coat about 3 weeks ago (7th day streak), one sun stone and one king’s rock (same day, back-to-back stops), and one dragon scale. Here’s the cool part: sun stone, king’s rock and dragon scale were acquired from different stops AT THE EXACT SAME TIME.
These images are of the last three items I received, the sun stone and king’s rock were on saturday, while the dragon scale was today. The curious thing is, I received these items at the exact same time: 4:50 pm, which is extremely bizarre.
This leads me to believe that evolutionary items are set to specific times during the day, and that’s the reason most people here haven’t gotten a single evolutionary item.
If I remember correctly, there was once a post (r/pokemongo) about someone who found up to 7 evolutionary items exactly at 12:00 am, which is similar to what happened to me, but at a different time. Probably different times for different players?
I’ll keep trying this during the week, to see if similar items are obtained. I live in Monterrey, Mexico, Central Time Zone, the same one for Mexico City, and San Antonio, Texas
We are currently investigating this subject and will report back soon with our findings.